I am playing some live poker soon, so while I was finding out what is on where- I came across (and borrowed) this useful poker calendar from a poker forum I visit.. hope they don't mind :)
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Add to myYahoo!Yesterday, I asked the question of which is true:
Statement A:
There is no shame in going out late in a tournament on a near coin-toss.
Statement B:
You should not put your tournament life on the line on a mere coin-toss.
I received a decent amount of responses, with the general consensus epitomized by BSN's comment: "It depends." But really, doesn't it always "depend" in poker? The question wasn't meant to elicit the final answer to the question, since "It depends" is invariably the answer in poker. However, there were some ideas that I thought shed some light on the conundrum that is these opposing statements.
WillWonka chimed in first with some interesting ideas. He voted for A, but only when he was late in a tournament. The logic it is "virtually impossible" to make it through an MTT without winning a cointoss. I've got to respectful disagree somewhat from this analysis. If anything, it suggests to me that you are better to get all-in on a cointoss early. Why wade through the masses if you are going to need a cointoss sooner or later. Just go for it sooner. I think the problem may be that Wonka's analysis makes sense if you are NOT going all-in. Rather, if you are near the end of a tournament and may have to go for a cointoss for most (but not all) of your chips, it may be okay, since it will catapult you to contention for first. It doesn't apply as readily to when you are all in because then, you'd be essentially saying that all of your work surviving is then negated by that end gamble.
Another way to address Wonka's ideas is to look at stack sizes, generally, as suggested by F-Train and more thoroughly by Surflexus. F-Train merely mentioned that it depends on stack sizes, but when I suggested the different ways of addressing stack size, Surf offered a more extensive analysis. He said to look at (1) blinds relative to your stack and (2) chip counts of all other players [his (3) is really a derivative of (1)]. This makes perfect sense. If you are extremely shortstacked with only 3x the BB, then of course pushing for a cointoss is more warranted. This is even more so when everyone else has 30x the BB relative to your stack. You are in desperation mode, so 50/50 isn't a bad gamble anymore. Undeniably, then, there are times that A is true, and you have no choice but to accept and embrace a cointoss due to a dwindling stack. (The "shame" however, may exist in how you got to be a shortstack, rather than in your acceptanced of a cointoss). On the flipside, if you have 30x the BB, one guy has 35x the BB, and everyone else has 5x, going all-in against the 35x guy on an obvious cointoss is clearly a poor play.
The other distinction which I thought particularly intelligent was whether you are the raiser or the caller. This was first mentioned by Bayne and also echoed by Hoy and PokerWolf. As Hoy explains, "As long as you honestly believe you can elicit a fold, I think this kind of an allin raise is justifiable early, middle or late in a tournament." The equity you can make by getting your opponent to fold can add EV to the all-in on a cointoss situation. So, raising all-in with AK to push out a player who might be betting with a weak pocket pair is still a cointoss situation, but since it could elicit a fold, its a better play than if you were calling the small pocket pair's all-in. By pushing, you can win the pot uncontested and rest assured that if he does call, you'll still be almost 50% to win.
One final thought that was only mentioned by Hoy: pot odds. We discuss cointosses and I think everyone assumes its a two-player confrontation, so your pot odds are roughly 1:1. However, if the blinds are big, or there are significant antes, or there are other callers that you can knock out to get heads-up on a cointoss, the pot odds MIGHT dictate a call. I would expect that this is a dangerous analysis, since survival is key in MTTs, but if the odds you are getting are enormous, then it might be a proper play to call an all-in. For instance, you have AKs in LP with 2000 chips, with blinds of 100/200 and 25 antes, at a full table. Preflop, the pot is 550, and by the time the action is to you, one player in MP with 5000 has raised from 200 to 800. Assuming you know the opponent has a pocket pair, an all-in push might be smart here. With the MP raise, the pot has 1150 in it, and you have to push 1975 total to go all-in. MP will likely call you here and you'll have roughly a 50/50 chance of winning. However, for your almost 2k investment, you have the chance of winning 4.5k, giving you better than the 1:1 odds you need to make this a correct move according to pot odds. Maybe I'm making it murky here, but I can see situations where pot odds are a relevant factor.
So, there you have it. As BSN says, "It depends", and as the others have explained, things to consider are (i) your stack size compared to the blinds, (ii) your opponents' stack sizes compared to the blinds and your stack, (iii) whether you are the raiser or caller, and to a lesser extent, (iv) pot odds.
Thanks for all of your comments. I'll have you know that last night, I played the Hoy and went out 7th out of 23, but I made two decent comebacks after horrible suckouts against stacks that were only a tiny bit smaller than mine. In my last hand, I called Lucko's push with 22, knowing that it was a cointoss, weighted in my favor. At the time, I was the small stack, and I needed the chips to get back into contention. I also knew that Lucko was pushing with any two cards, so I was confident it was a cointoss. Considering everything, I'm still not sure if it was a good play.
Until next time, make mine poker!
Read The Full Article:
http://highonpoker.blogspot.com/2007/07/this-is-true-2.html
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Read The Full Article:
http://guinnessandpoker.blogspot.com/2007/07/im-back-from-weekend-of-utter.html
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Add to myYahoo!If you like playing fantasy sports and you like money, you're really missing out if not playing frequently over at Fantasy Sports Live. We've gotten great feedback from players used to long fantasy seasons with little payoff. At FSL, the daily contests give you an opportunity to draft and win every day. Even multiple times a day.
It's high comedy to be in a room with people watching box scores and MLB Extra Innings, begging for their player to do something with the fantasy contest--if not necessarily the actual game--in the balance. Like a football game well out of hand but with the point spread stil in play. And my girlie chat box has been filled with similar sentiment.
Don't believe it in the abstract? Then let me tell you about tonight. I was in a $5 contest and mired in 5th or so with most games completed. Pitching is key and though my starter pitched well, he did not get a win, which is worth 10 big points. So I trailed opponents whose pitchers had better outings. I did have a live player, though. Vernon Wells. Who went single, HR, out, HR, single in his first 5 ABs, good for 14 points. I leap-frogged three players and was deadlocked for first, as the Jays-A's went to the 9th. And Wells was up 3rd.
Anything positive (walk or hit) and I get a point for the win, since the guy I was tied with had no more active players. But a strikeout, which takes away a point, and I fall into a tie for second.
So Wells comes up with one out and a runer on second, lugging his huge 4-5 evening and the A's, already down four, walk him. Intentionally.
ONE POINT! And a winner.
You can't re-create that kind of excitement. Unless you re-write the rules. Get in the game. Bonus code: Speaker.
Read The Full Article:
http://obituarium.blogspot.com/2007/07/four-wide-ones.html
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Add to myYahoo!by BSN
Just looking back at some old posts, and came across this gem tucked into some actual poker content:
Mrs. Big has me scratching my ever-loving-head these days.I crack myself up sometimes... ;-)
She asked me to stop at Sam?s and pick up a Click-n-Pull order today. I get there, and there?s a float stacked high with emergency food: 128 bottles of water, a case of Gatorade, gobs of canned soups, veggies, and Chef Boyardee, 50 lbs of dog food,30 rolls of TP, filter masks, god knows how many maxi-pads? oh, and there was a second order she placed an hour later with hand sanitizer and 6 more gallons of Zephyrhills water because apparently 128 bottles wasn?t enough.
We?re moving in 3 weeks. We?re spending our days weeding out crap, and here she is bringing it back in. I can?t even bring myself to tell you how much this crap cost.
Bird Flu.
Yep, she?s afraid that society is going to break down if there?s bird flu.
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Add to myYahoo!Several months ago, I made a post called "Which is True?" TripJax liked the idea and commented that he looked forward to future editions of the column. Well, I hope I didn't make him wait too long. It's a really simple concept. I'll set forth two ideas that both appear true on their face but also appear to be in opposition. All you have to do is share your opinion. Let's proceed:
Statement A:
There is no shame in going out late in a tournament on a near coin-toss.
Statement B:
You should not put your tournament life on the line on a mere coin-toss.
So, which is true, or if they are both true, how so? I believe that this may be a topic near and dear to the poker blogging community, and frankly, I don't think the answer is very clearcut. There are days that I would profess A to be true and B to be false, and there are other days where I would say the opposite. So, I ask you, Which is True?
Read The Full Article:
http://highonpoker.blogspot.com/2007/06/which-is-true-2.html
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Add to myYahoo!Experience Las Vegas Poker from the most talented scribe writing today, Dr Pauly of Tao of Poker. Be a part of the complete 2007 WSOP with the Poker Prof's World Series of Poker 2007 Information Page. photo by flipchip/lasvegasvegas.com Blair...[...]
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http://www.lasvegasvegas.com/pokerblog/archives/005070.php
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